He ran for Governor last year as an Independent. MoreMonmouthMusingsbroke the story that the Democrats paid for robo calls for Daggett in the closing days of the 2009 campaign. Shameless and desperate, the Dems kept making those calls even after it was all over the news that they were paying for them and after Daggett himself condemned them for doing so.
There are plenty of signs that the Democrats are equally shameless and desperate this year as the GOP is poised to take control of the New Jersey Congressional delegation with victories in the 3rd, 6th and 12th districts.
In the 3rd district, the press has finally confirmed what everybody knew. The Democrats put a 3rd party “Tea Party” candidate on the ballot to syphon votes away from Republican Jon Runyan in order to help freshman Democratic Congressman John Adler retain his seat in a traditionally Republican district.
The biggest indicator that Scott Sipprelle is winning in the 12th district is that Rush Holt has agreed to debates. Holt doesn’t even like to take live questions from his constituents. Rush is probably taking comfort from the fact that liberal Ben Dworkin of Rider University is moderating. Dworkin proclaimed his liberalness on his facebook page until very recently. He used to be the Assistant Director of Research for NJ Democratic Assembly Office.
Who would have thought that Anna Little would have been within single digits of Frank Pallone 4 weeks before election day? Who besides me, Mike Laffey, Dwight Kehoe, Bob Gordon, Barbara Gonzalez and Brian Hegarty? Russ Cote. Maybe Mickey Gooch too. He’s got 5-1 odds on Little.
Pallone hasn’t been in a competitive race in 22 years. He cut his dirty trick budget after the primary, figuring he could cruise to victory and save is $4 million war chest for a U.S. Senate race. Now he’s resorting to buying everyone pancakes and pleading for help because, in his own words, he “can’t possibly get across the finish line on November 2nd without your continued support.”
Posted: October 9th, 2010 | Author:Art Gallagher | Filed under:Rush Holt | Tags:Rush Holt | Comments Off on The Answer: Rush Holt. Who is the most liberal member of congress?
While this video may be long for some, Millennium Radio’s Janet Fried did a great job asking Anna Little about the issues concerning the voters of New Jersey’s 6th congressional district. As is always the case, Little answered forthrightly and with a smile.
Bookmark this video to show to your friends and family who have questions about Little’s positions and the misinformation that Phoney Palloney is disseminating about Little, especially with regard to the environment.
The problem with the so-called math error is that you are using unweighted sample sizes (which pollsters use to estimate error) to back into the horse race numbers, rather than using the weighted adjustments to the subgroups upon which our final numbers are based. You can find those weighted adjustment in our methodology statement (which Art originally did, but Bill didn’t). The difference between what unweighted and weighted “n sizes” is something that every pollster DOES learn in polling school. And since we adhere to principles of full disclosure, we give both the unweighted and weighted information. Unfortunately, it is lack of public knowledge about polling principles that lead many other pollsters to withhold disclosure, so they can avoid uninformed critiques. We at Monmouth believe that all our data should be out there. Art’s original criticism of our voter turnout model is a fair one, since no one knows what Nov. 2’s electorate will look like and I responded to that by re-running our numbers using his assumptions and providing that data. This criticism, however, is just plain wrong.
Editors note: I’m relieved to hear a credible explanation from Patrick. While I will lose no sleep derailing the careers of Frank Pallone, Rush Holt and John D’Amico, MMM means Patrick Murray no harm.
I sat on the math discrepancy story most of the day waiting for Patrick to call. I sought out expert advise that was not available. Next time I’ll wait longer. ~ Art
~ Governor Chris Christie on NJ101.5’s Ask the Governor, September 29, 2010
Monmouth University’s CD-6 poll has math errors!
By Art Gallagher
Turns out that Governor Christie was right about Patrick. Not just because Murray polled non-voters in his approval poll of the governor. Murray’s math is wrong in the CD-6 poll he released on Tuesday.
As much as I have enjoyed the kudos I have received since Murray said he revised his numbers based on upon my assumptions, I don’t fully deserve them. I challenged Murray’s assumptions about the demographics of the district. It never occurred to me to check his arithmetic.
Fortunately, it did occur to an MMM reader, Bill Wolstromer of Colts Neck.
I have a number of questions about this poll, starting with the numbers not adding up. If you simply multiply the responses for each group by their candidate preference, the result is Pallone-51.2%, Little-42.5%, Undecided-6.3%, a margin of 8.7% NOT 12%.Additionally, if the Undecided voters break according to their party affiliation, the gap narrows to 8.4%.Have you tricked the numbers to show Republicans and independents being less likely to vote than Democrats?Highly unlikely in this environment
Doing the math, Murray’s original poll release should have announced a 9% margin between Frank Pallone and Anna Little. Not the 12% margin that was announced. That’s a 25% difference.
Murray has yet to respond to Wolstromer’s email, or to my phone call this morning seeking comment or clarification.
Murrary owes an explanation to the media and the people of New Jersey who have come to rely upon him as a credible pollster.
(HIGHLANDS, October 8th) – Larry Cirignano, campaign manager for Republican congressional challenger Anna Little – responding to the Monmouth University Polling Institute’s remarkable decision to adjust its numbers on a survey as a result of a numbers-crunching analysis by a local blogger – today released the following statement:
“In all my years of working to elect conservative candidates, I’ve never before seen a pollster acknowledge that his own numbers were wrong. But yesterday afternoon, that’s exactly what happened, when the Monmouth University Polling Institute adjusted the numbers on the survey it released a day earlier and cut 22-year incumbent Frank Pallone’s ‘lead’ by 25 percent, slashing it from 12 points to just 9.
“This remarkable turn of events happened as the result of an analysis by Art Gallagher, the editor of MoreMonmouthMusings.net.
“When the survey results were originally released, we questioned the methodology of the survey – it used robo-calls instead of live callers. We also raised a question regarding the composition of the survey sample, given that the survey indicated that Anna Little was leading Frank Pallone by 51-38 percent among Independents, yet Anna was still supposedly trailing by a dozen points – a clear indication that there were too many Democrats included in the survey.
“But Art Gallagher took the questions a step further. He checked the survey sample against voter file databases and demonstrated through a rigorous analysis (available online here: http://www.moremonmouthmusings.net/2010/10/06/musings-on-the-monmouth-university-cd-6-poll/) that the Monmouth numbers simply did not add up correctly. And then he got in touch with the survey director and shared the results of his analysis.
“And, to his credit, Monmouth University Polling Institute director Patrick Murray acknowledged to Gallagher that ‘your assumptions are as good as mine, and this is a very volatile electorate’ – and then he adjusted his own numbers to reflect a 51-42 percent Pallone lead, instead of the 12-point lead he originally projected.
“When you stop to consider that the day before, Murray, speaking of what he believed to be a 12-point Pallone lead, said, ‘A 12 point lead may look comfortable, but not when you consider the fact that Pallone regularly wins reelection by more than 30 points,’ you can only ask yourself – just how worried is Frank Pallone now?
“We’re quite confident that when our campaign’s advertising kicks in, these numbers are going to shift even further in our favor.
“Remember, you cannot change Washington without changing the people we send to Washington!”
As usual, Greg Kelly @ Monmouth County Life did a great job with the weekend events calender.
For some strange reason Pancakes Pallone on Sunday didn’t make Greg’s list. That event is at the Bayshore Senior Center in Keansburg. I wonder if Joe Hawley will be admitted to the senior center.
If you’re going out to dinner, visit one of our advertisers. If you like the HDTV’s at those advertisers and think one would be great in your home, we have an advertiser that sells those too.
Bret Schundler testified before the Senate Legislative Oversight Committee yesterday and joined Senate Democrats in shifting the blame for the failed “Race To The Top” application for $400 million in federal education pork to Governor Christie’s insistence that the Education Department not cave to the NJEA’s opposition to merit pay for teachers and accountability standards, rather than accept responsibility for his own clerical error that was the cause of the failure.
It is sad to witness Schundler’s personal race to the bottom. It wouldn’t surprise me if Schundler switches parties again and runs against Christie in 2013. I would enjoy that race.
Long Branch is spending $3.7 million in federal taxpayers’ dollars, courtesy of Porky Pallone, for designs of a possible 900 foot pier to extend into the Atlantic Ocean.
The pier would be a transportation hub with a ferry terminal for commuters going to New York and an entertainment center with restaurants, retail, a theater, etc. The costs are estimated to be anywhere between $46 million and $92 million before overruns which would be financed with federal and state taxpayers dollars and pie in the sky leases on the entertainment center. Let’s call the project Xanadu South.
The Asbury Park Press reported that Long Branch officials have been lobbying adjacent governments and other agencies to support the proposal. Asbury Park officials were enthusiastic and Woolley has made presentations to the Monmouth County freeholders, NJ Transit, the Monmouth County Planning Board and the economic development committee of the Monmouth/Ocean Development Council.
The APP quotes Long Branch administrator as saying “Everybody has said “This is a great idea, we see value in it.”
I can understand why Asbury Park officials would be enthused. I’m not so sure that Deal residents would be enthused by all the new traffic along Ocean Ave between Long Branch and Asbury Park.
I’ll let others debate the merits and financing of the actual project, for the moment. What concerns me is how will people get there? Traffic on Route 36 from Highlands to Eatontown is already a nightmare. NJ DOT is finishing up a $140 million + Route 36 bridge project over the Shrewsbury now. The eight lane bridge connects 4 lanes of Route 36 in Highlands to two lanes of Route 36 in Sea Bright.
When is the Route 36 expansion project going to be announced?
How much land will be taken via eminent domain in Highlands, Sea Bright, Monmouth Beach, Long Branch (both Ocean Ave and Joline Ave), Oceanport and Eatontown? Will the expansion extend along to Bayshore through Atlantic Highlands, Middletown, Union Beach, Keansburg and Keyport to the Garden State Parkway on the north? Will it extend through Tinton Falls to the Garden State Parkway and Route 18 in the south?
Will there also be a Route 18 expansion project to connect Long Branch to New Brunswick and all the towns in between?
Is the Long Branch pier project the next step to turning Monmouth County into Bergen County with beaches?
