National Research Poll: Sipprelle Up By 1% In NJ-12. 14% Still Undecided

By Adam Geller

According to a National Research poll just out of the field, Republican challenger Scott Sipprelle leads Democrat Congressman Rush Holt 43%-42% in New Jersey’s 12th congressional district as we head into the final weekend of the 2010 mid-term campaign. The remaining 14% are undecided.
Some additional data:

  

 Sipprelle leads 46%-32% among self identified Independent/unaffiliated voters.

 Among those who identify themselves as the most likely to turn out, Sipprelle leads 47%-41%.

 Among voters who have heard of both candidates, Sipprelle leads 44%-42%.

 Among voters who have formed an opinion of both candidates, Sipprelle leads 52%-40%.

 New Jersey Governor Chris Christie has a very strong image in this district, with a 60% favorable rating and a 34% unfavorable.

 Among the voters who are favorable to the Governor, Sipprelle leads Holt 66%-23%.

 The generic ballot shows a five point GOP advantage, as the generic Republican leads the generic Democrat 45%-40%.

 As undecided voters become late deciders this weekend and early next week, we expect the race to continue to be tight, with turnout becoming the final, crucial determining factor. But if current turnout holds and Republicans continue to exhibit an enthusiasm advantage in this district, we give the edge to Sipprelle.

National Research Inc. conducted a telephone survey in New Jersey’s 12th Congressional District on October 27, 2010. The survey was conducted among 300 likely voters and has a margin of error of +/- 5.66% in 95 out of 100 cases. Interviews were stratified geographically to conform with likely 2010 voter turnout in the district. By registration, 39% of the sample are Democrats, 27% are Republicans, and 34% are unaffiliated. 48% of the sample are male, 52% are female.National Research Inc. is a national political and corporate polling firm, whose client list includes Governor Chris Christie, members of Congress and State Legislatures, the NRCC, the Club for Growth and the RGA. 

 

 

 

 

 

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Posted: October 29th, 2010 | Author: | Filed under: Uncategorized | 7 Comments »

7 Comments on “National Research Poll: Sipprelle Up By 1% In NJ-12. 14% Still Undecided”

  1. Rick Ambrosia said at 8:18 pm on October 29th, 2010:

    No kidding…a republican pollster gives Sipprelle a 1% lead? Fancy that.

    It must mean, in the real world, that he’s down by at least 10%.

  2. Ronald R said at 8:53 pm on October 29th, 2010:

    Interesting, but the same guy who said that Holt would thrash Scott in the primary.

  3. Mlaffey said at 11:03 pm on October 29th, 2010:

    GOODBYE RUSH!

  4. name said at 8:44 am on October 30th, 2010:

    MU released cross tabs, where are Gellers?

  5. believeit said at 8:47 am on October 30th, 2010:

    Geller’s poll was the only one that accurately had the Christie numbers 4 days prior to last year’s election. Geller has also run polls in several big Monmouth races and for the county that have been spot on during the past few years. I doubt he would risk the credibility of his firm to make up numbers. He’d just say nothing.

  6. Tweets that mention MoreMonmouthMusings » Blog Archive » National Research Poll: Sipprelle Up By 1% In NJ-12. 14% Still Undecided -- Topsy.com said at 9:41 am on October 30th, 2010:

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  7. alans said at 2:09 pm on October 30th, 2010:

    Nothing could be better than getting rid of progressive loon Rush Holt. Rush thinks the government should take all of our money in taxes and distribute the money as he sees fit. Dump Rush Holt. 10 million of stimulus money went to Rush’s plasma physics lab in Princeton. Zero jobs were created. Thanks Rusk