By Adam Geller
According to a National Research poll just out of the field, Republican challenger Scott Sipprelle leads Democrat Congressman Rush Holt 43%-42% in New Jersey’s 12th congressional district as we head into the final weekend of the 2010 mid-term campaign. The remaining 14% are undecided.
Some additional data:
Sipprelle leads 46%-32% among self identified Independent/unaffiliated voters.
Among those who identify themselves as the most likely to turn out, Sipprelle leads 47%-41%.
Among voters who have heard of both candidates, Sipprelle leads 44%-42%.
Among voters who have formed an opinion of both candidates, Sipprelle leads 52%-40%.
New Jersey Governor Chris Christie has a very strong image in this district, with a 60% favorable rating and a 34% unfavorable.
Among the voters who are favorable to the Governor, Sipprelle leads Holt 66%-23%.
The generic ballot shows a five point GOP advantage, as the generic Republican leads the generic Democrat 45%-40%.
As undecided voters become late deciders this weekend and early next week, we expect the race to continue to be tight, with turnout becoming the final, crucial determining factor. But if current turnout holds and Republicans continue to exhibit an enthusiasm advantage in this district, we give the edge to Sipprelle.
National Research Inc. conducted a telephone survey in New Jersey’s 12th Congressional District on October 27, 2010. The survey was conducted among 300 likely voters and has a margin of error of +/- 5.66% in 95 out of 100 cases. Interviews were stratified geographically to conform with likely 2010 voter turnout in the district. By registration, 39% of the sample are Democrats, 27% are Republicans, and 34% are unaffiliated. 48% of the sample are male, 52% are female.National Research Inc. is a national political and corporate polling firm, whose client list includes Governor Chris Christie, members of Congress and State Legislatures, the NRCC, the Club for Growth and the RGA.
Posted: October 29th, 2010 | Author: Art Gallagher | Filed under: Uncategorized | 7 Comments »