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Get up to the minute primary results at MoreMonmouthMusings

MMM will be providing up to the minute primary results tonight courtesy of NJSpotLight.

The polls close at 8PM tonight.

The Republican and Democrat gubernatorial results as well as contested legislative races will be updated throughout the night as the results are reported by New Jersey’s County Clerks.

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Posted: June 6th, 2017 | Author: | Filed under: 2017 Elections, 2017 NJ Gubernatorial Politics, New Jersey | Tags: , , , | Comments Off on Get up to the minute primary results at MoreMonmouthMusings

Patrick Murray: Mark Magyar mischaracterized his analysis

Magyar admits mistake, promises to fix it but doesn’t

By Art Gallagher, [email protected]

Monmouth University pollster Patrick Murray responded to my post this morning, Patrick Murray is emphatic that his next poll will be negative for Christie, about his quote in Mark Magyar’s anti-Chistie spin piece on NJSpotlight with an email asserting that his analysis was mischaracteriszed.

Patrick Murray

Patrick Murray

Murray provided an email exchange between himself and Magyar wherein Magyar admits his mistake and promises to fix it.

Murray said:

My assessment of what is likely to happen to public opinion going forward was based on an analysis of the underlying dynamics of my own poll released on April 2 — specifically the public’s underlying initial skepticism of the Mastro report was in my own poll and my analysis of potential movement in that opinion.  Mark, by his own admission, mischaracterized my analysis, which was based on actual public opinion data that I have collected and analyzed.

In the NJSpotlight piece, Magyar quoted Murray as follows:

Quinnipiac Poll released last week showed that 56 percent of New Jerseyans regarded the report as a “whitewash” and only 36 percent believed it to be a “legitimate investigation.” Even more ominously, 65 percent of voters knew of the Hoboken case, and 57 percent of that group believe Zimmer’s allegation that the Christie administration improperly withheld Sandy aid from her city because she refused to support the Rockefeller Group development.

Murray said he expected to see similar results in his next Monmouth Poll. “It will be negative. This is not going to be positive,” Murray stated emphatically, asserting that the controversy over the Mastro report clearly resonated with voters. “The question now with Christie is, ‘Have we hit a floor where a certain percentage of people will defend him no matter what, and everyone else will attack him?’”

Murray corrected Magyar in a email at 9;32 this morning:

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Posted: April 16th, 2014 | Author: | Filed under: Bridgegate, Chris Christie, Department of Community Affairs, Kim Guadagno, Monmouth University Poll, Patrick Murray | Tags: , , , , , , , , , | Comments Off on Patrick Murray: Mark Magyar mischaracterized his analysis

Patrick Murray is emphatic that his next poll will be negative for Christie

By Art Gallagher, [email protected]

UPDATE 4:15PM:  Murray says Magyar/NJSpotlight mischaracterised his analysis.  Read the next chapter here.

Monmouth University pollster Patrick Murray already knows that his next poll about Bridgegate and the Mastro Report, will have an negative outcome for Governor Chris Christie.

Murray is quoted by Mark Magyar in a NJSpotlight piece posted this morning saying emphatically that his next poll will have negative results.

“The Mastro report raised more questions than it answered about what is going on in the Christie administration,” Patrick Murray, director of the Monmouth University Polling Institute, noted. “Now, the release of the memos has raised even more questions, including questions about the credibility of the Mastro report itself.”

Murray said he could not imagine what Christie and his top advisers were thinking when they settled on their current legal and political strategy. “Every time they put something out, they undercut their credibility,” he said. “Everything they do provides fodder that keeps this investigation alive and keeps this story alive. The report was overly protective of the governor, and now everyone is looking through the memos to see what the report left out. Nothing gets settled, everything looks worse.”

A Quinnipiac Poll released last week showed that 56 percent of New Jerseyans regarded the report as a “whitewash” and only 36 percent believed it to be a “legitimate investigation.” Even more ominously, 65 percent of voters knew of the Hoboken case, and 57 percent of that group believe Zimmer’s allegation that the Christie administration improperly withheld Sandy aid from her city because she refused to support the Rockefeller Group development.

Murray said he expected to see similar results in his next Monmouth Poll. “It will be negative. This is not going to be positive,” Murray stated emphatically, asserting that the controversy over the Mastro report clearly resonated with voters. “The question now with Christie is, ‘Have we hit a floor where a certain percentage of people will defend him no matter what, and everyone else will attack him?’”  (emphasis added)

 

IMG_9512Murray enjoys a well-earned reputation for producing polls that most accurately match the results of elections in New Jersey.  However, his declaration of a poll’s results before he’s asked a question raises serious questions about his credibility as a political scientist and the perceived “independence” of his analysis.

In fairness I should point out that it is possible that Murray already conducted his survey and hasn’t reported the results yet.

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Posted: April 16th, 2014 | Author: | Filed under: 2016 Presidential Politics, Bridgegate, Chris Christie, Dawn Zimmer, Hoboken, Monmouth University Poll, NJ Media, Patrick Murray | Tags: , , , , , , , | Comments Off on Patrick Murray is emphatic that his next poll will be negative for Christie

Opinion: Sweeney Starts to Gather Strength for Possible Governor Bid

Opinion: Sweeney Starts to Gather Strength for Possible Governor Bid (via NJSpotlight)

When Senate President Steve Sweeney took a victory lap in celebration of the Democrats’ maintaining their legislative majorities, it served also as the start of an effort to cast himself as a credible candidate for his party’s gubernatorial nomination…

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Posted: December 2nd, 2013 | Author: | Filed under: NJNewsCommons, Opinion | Tags: , , , , | 2 Comments »

Christie Administration Reflects on Sandy Recovery Progress and Challenges

Christie Administration Reflects on Sandy Recovery Progress and Challenges (via NJSpotlight)

When Sandy made landfall last October, displacing 120,000 from their homes, NJ Department of Community Affairs Commissioner Richard Constable said his department took immediate action to provide shelters and assist towns with their budgetary problems…

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Posted: November 21st, 2013 | Author: | Filed under: News, NJNewsCommons, Superstorm Sandy | Tags: , , | Comments Off on Christie Administration Reflects on Sandy Recovery Progress and Challenges

Opinion: What Happened to Long Coattails in Gubernatorial Elections?

To a legislator, the difference between being in the majority and being in the minority is as consequential as the difference between being in office and being out of office. That is why my political life was transformed in November 1985 when, as a…

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Posted: November 10th, 2013 | Author: | Filed under: 2013 Election, Dick Zimmer, NJ State Legislature | Tags: , , , | 2 Comments »

Mapping Out Areas in New Jersey at Risk of Future Flooding as Ocean Levels Rise

How vulnerable is New Jersey to flooding caused by rising sea levels and climate change? Very vulnerable, according to a new tool developed by Climate Central, a Princeton-based nonprofit that researches the effects of climate change. A year after Sandy…

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Posted: October 28th, 2013 | Author: | Filed under: Climate Change, News, NJNewsCommons | Tags: , , , | Comments Off on Mapping Out Areas in New Jersey at Risk of Future Flooding as Ocean Levels Rise

The List: Who Spent the Most on Lobbying in New Jersey Last Year?

The List: Who Spent the Most on Lobbying in New Jersey Last Year? (via NJSpotlight)

Lobbying is a big business in New Jersey. The New Jersey Election Law Enforcement Commission reports that more than $58 million was spent last year by businesses, organizations, and lobbyists to try to influence lawmakers, the governor, and the general…

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Posted: October 7th, 2013 | Author: | Filed under: News, NJNewsCommons | Tags: , , , | 1 Comment »

Trends Toward Greater Doctor Shortage Worry State Legislators

New Jersey policymakers looking to address a looming shortage of doctors in the state need to act quickly, as the problem appears to be getting worse and more quickly than predicted. More of the state’s medical residents are planning to leave the…

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Posted: September 25th, 2013 | Author: | Filed under: Amy Handlin, Caroline Casagrande, Health Care, News, NJNewsCommons, RePost | Tags: , , , , , | 3 Comments »

Ocean Grove Beachfront and Boardwalk May Not Get FEMA Funding To Rebuild

By Art Gallagher

Photo credit: Ocean Grove Camp Meeting Association

Photo credit: Ocean Grove Camp Meeting Association

Neptune Township’s beachfront and boardwalk in the Ocean Grove section of the Township might not get the estimated $3 million in FEMA funding needed to rebuild because the property is owned by the private non-profit and religious Ocean Grove Camp Meeting Association (OGCMA), according to an article by freelance journalist Caren Chesler published at NJSpotLight.

Neptune Township Committee Member and Ocean Grove business owner Randy Bishop, as well as Michael Bascom, the Township’s CFO are working with OGCMA to pursuade FEMA to pay for the repairs on the stretch of beach that connects the regional shoreline from Asbury Park south to Spring Lake.

In a press release posted on OGCMA’s website, President Dr. Dale C. Whilden said, “The Camp Meeting is fully committed to restoring Ocean Grove’s beautiful beachfront, a keystone of our community as well as a protection from ocean storms, and we’re on track to implement a comprehensive beach and boardwalk restoration plan.  With God’s blessing and the assistance of our local, state and federal officials, as well as support from individuals and organizations, our beach will open on Memorial Day weekend.”

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Posted: January 14th, 2013 | Author: | Filed under: Art Gallagher, FEMA, Garden State Equality, Gay Marriage, Gender Equality, Hurricane Sandy, Marriage Equality, Marriage Equality and Religious Exemptions Act, Neptune, Neptune Township | Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 2 Comments »