Patrick Murray: Mark Magyar mischaracterized his analysis

Magyar admits mistake, promises to fix it but doesn’t

By Art Gallagher, artvg@aol.com

Monmouth University pollster Patrick Murray responded to my post this morning, Patrick Murray is emphatic that his next poll will be negative for Christie, about his quote in Mark Magyar’s anti-Chistie spin piece on NJSpotlight with an email asserting that his analysis was mischaracteriszed.

Patrick Murray

Patrick Murray

Murray provided an email exchange between himself and Magyar wherein Magyar admits his mistake and promises to fix it.

Murray said:

My assessment of what is likely to happen to public opinion going forward was based on an analysis of the underlying dynamics of my own poll released on April 2 — specifically the public’s underlying initial skepticism of the Mastro report was in my own poll and my analysis of potential movement in that opinion.  Mark, by his own admission, mischaracterized my analysis, which was based on actual public opinion data that I have collected and analyzed.

In the NJSpotlight piece, Magyar quoted Murray as follows:

Quinnipiac Poll released last week showed that 56 percent of New Jerseyans regarded the report as a “whitewash” and only 36 percent believed it to be a “legitimate investigation.” Even more ominously, 65 percent of voters knew of the Hoboken case, and 57 percent of that group believe Zimmer’s allegation that the Christie administration improperly withheld Sandy aid from her city because she refused to support the Rockefeller Group development.

Murray said he expected to see similar results in his next Monmouth Poll. “It will be negative. This is not going to be positive,” Murray stated emphatically, asserting that the controversy over the Mastro report clearly resonated with voters. “The question now with Christie is, ‘Have we hit a floor where a certain percentage of people will defend him no matter what, and everyone else will attack him?’”

Murray corrected Magyar in a email at 9;32 this morning:

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Posted: April 16th, 2014 | Author: | Filed under: Bridgegate, Chris Christie, Department of Community Affairs, Kim Guadagno, Monmouth University Poll, Patrick Murray | Tags: , , , , , , , , , | 2 Comments »

Patrick Murray is emphatic that his next poll will be negative for Christie

By Art Gallagher, artvg@aol.com

UPDATE 4:15PM:  Murray says Magyar/NJSpotlight mischaracterised his analysis.  Read the next chapter here.

Monmouth University pollster Patrick Murray already knows that his next poll about Bridgegate and the Mastro Report, will have an negative outcome for Governor Chris Christie.

Murray is quoted by Mark Magyar in a NJSpotlight piece posted this morning saying emphatically that his next poll will have negative results.

“The Mastro report raised more questions than it answered about what is going on in the Christie administration,” Patrick Murray, director of the Monmouth University Polling Institute, noted. “Now, the release of the memos has raised even more questions, including questions about the credibility of the Mastro report itself.”

Murray said he could not imagine what Christie and his top advisers were thinking when they settled on their current legal and political strategy. “Every time they put something out, they undercut their credibility,” he said. “Everything they do provides fodder that keeps this investigation alive and keeps this story alive. The report was overly protective of the governor, and now everyone is looking through the memos to see what the report left out. Nothing gets settled, everything looks worse.”

A Quinnipiac Poll released last week showed that 56 percent of New Jerseyans regarded the report as a “whitewash” and only 36 percent believed it to be a “legitimate investigation.” Even more ominously, 65 percent of voters knew of the Hoboken case, and 57 percent of that group believe Zimmer’s allegation that the Christie administration improperly withheld Sandy aid from her city because she refused to support the Rockefeller Group development.

Murray said he expected to see similar results in his next Monmouth Poll. “It will be negative. This is not going to be positive,” Murray stated emphatically, asserting that the controversy over the Mastro report clearly resonated with voters. “The question now with Christie is, ‘Have we hit a floor where a certain percentage of people will defend him no matter what, and everyone else will attack him?’”  (emphasis added)

 

IMG_9512Murray enjoys a well-earned reputation for producing polls that most accurately match the results of elections in New Jersey.  However, his declaration of a poll’s results before he’s asked a question raises serious questions about his credibility as a political scientist and the perceived “independence” of his analysis.

In fairness I should point out that it is possible that Murray already conducted his survey and hasn’t reported the results yet.

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Posted: April 16th, 2014 | Author: | Filed under: 2016 Presidential Politics, Bridgegate, Chris Christie, Dawn Zimmer, Hoboken, Monmouth University Poll, NJ Media, Patrick Murray | Tags: , , , , , , , | 1 Comment »

He Said, She Said: Quotable Moments From The Bridgegate Interviews

He Said, She Said: Quotable Moments From The Bridgegate Interviews (via NJSpotlight)

Newly released documents offer additional details about the scandals enveloping the Christie Administration. The documents are summaries of interviews with 70 people that New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie’s lawyers conducted as part of an internal review…

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Posted: April 16th, 2014 | Author: | Filed under: 2016 Presidential Politics, Bridgegate, Chris Christie | Tags: , , , | 1 Comment »

Judge Tosses Out Subpoenas in GWB Investigation

Judge Tosses Out Subpoenas in GWB Investigation (via NJTV News with Mike Schneider)

A big development today in the bridge scandal investigation. A judge sided with two major figures in the case, tossing out the subpoenas against Bridget Kelly and Bill Stepien and ruling against the select oversight committee that issued them. The committee…

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Posted: April 10th, 2014 | Author: | Filed under: Bridgegate | Tags: , , , , , , , , | 1 Comment »

Sweeney walks back comments on halting NJ bridge scandal investigation

Sweeney walks back comments on halting NJ bridge scandal investigation (via NJ.com)

NEWARK — Hours after Senate President Stephen Sweeney floated the idea of halting a legislative investigation of the George Washington Bridge scandal, he issued a statement saying the panel still has lots of work to do. “I do not believe the committee…

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Posted: April 7th, 2014 | Author: | Filed under: Bridgegate, Stephen Sweeney | Tags: , , | No Comments »

Sweeney: Stop bridge scandal legislative investigation if judge rules against committee

Sweeney: Stop bridge scandal legislative investigation if judge rules against committee (via NJ.com)

NEWARK — The state legislative committee investigating the George Washington Bridge scandal should “walk away” if a judge doesn’t rule in its favor on a key case, state Senate President Stephen Sweeney said today. State Superior Court Judge…

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Posted: April 7th, 2014 | Author: | Filed under: Bridgegate, Chris Christie | Tags: , , , , | No Comments »

GWB panel co-chairs spar on Sunday TV with report’s author, Giuliani

GWB panel co-chairs spar on Sunday TV with report’s author, Giuliani (via NJ.com)

Democrats’ battle to challenge a report commissioned by Gov. Chris Christie on September’s George Washington Bridge lane closures took to the airwaves Sunday, when the co-chairs of a legislative panel looking into the matter squared off against…

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Posted: March 31st, 2014 | Author: | Filed under: Bridgegate | Tags: , , , | 1 Comment »

Christie meets the press

Governor Chris Christie’s held is first press conference since January 9 this afternoon to answer questions regarding the Mastro Report into the George Washington Bridge lane closures known as Bridgegate that was released yesterday.

Christie announced the resignation of Port Authority Chairman David Samson in his statement prior to taking reporters questions.

The press conference was available live on MMM via livestream.

A recording of the press conference is made available courtesy of NJTV.

Posted: March 28th, 2014 | Author: | Filed under: Bridgegate, Chris Christie | Tags: , , , , , | 3 Comments »

NJ Democrats: Report clearing Christie brings more questions than answers

NJ Democrats: Report clearing Christie brings more questions than answers (via NJ.com)

TRENTON — A leading Democratic state lawmaker investigating the George Washington Bridge lane closures dismissed the findings of a report released today by Gov. Chris Christie’s lawyers clearing him of responsibility for the traffic scandal. State…

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Posted: March 27th, 2014 | Author: | Filed under: Bridgegate | Tags: , , , , | 3 Comments »

Christie bridge scandal: Internal report clears governor, calls for Port Authority restructuring

Christie bridge scandal: Internal report clears governor, calls for Port Authority restructuring (via NJ.com)

TRENTON — An internal investigation commissioned by the governor’s office found no evidence Gov. Chris Christie knew about the controversial plan to shut down several toll lanes at the George Washington Bridge beforehand, according to a report released…

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Posted: March 27th, 2014 | Author: | Filed under: Bridgegate | Tags: , | No Comments »