Patrick Murray: Mark Magyar mischaracterized his analysis

Magyar admits mistake, promises to fix it but doesn’t

By Art Gallagher, artvg@aol.com

Monmouth University pollster Patrick Murray responded to my post this morning, Patrick Murray is emphatic that his next poll will be negative for Christie, about his quote in Mark Magyar’s anti-Chistie spin piece on NJSpotlight with an email asserting that his analysis was mischaracteriszed.

Patrick Murray

Patrick Murray

Murray provided an email exchange between himself and Magyar wherein Magyar admits his mistake and promises to fix it.

Murray said:

My assessment of what is likely to happen to public opinion going forward was based on an analysis of the underlying dynamics of my own poll released on April 2 — specifically the public’s underlying initial skepticism of the Mastro report was in my own poll and my analysis of potential movement in that opinion.  Mark, by his own admission, mischaracterized my analysis, which was based on actual public opinion data that I have collected and analyzed.

In the NJSpotlight piece, Magyar quoted Murray as follows:

Quinnipiac Poll released last week showed that 56 percent of New Jerseyans regarded the report as a “whitewash” and only 36 percent believed it to be a “legitimate investigation.” Even more ominously, 65 percent of voters knew of the Hoboken case, and 57 percent of that group believe Zimmer’s allegation that the Christie administration improperly withheld Sandy aid from her city because she refused to support the Rockefeller Group development.

Murray said he expected to see similar results in his next Monmouth Poll. “It will be negative. This is not going to be positive,” Murray stated emphatically, asserting that the controversy over the Mastro report clearly resonated with voters. “The question now with Christie is, ‘Have we hit a floor where a certain percentage of people will defend him no matter what, and everyone else will attack him?’”

Murray corrected Magyar in a email at 9;32 this morning:

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Posted: April 16th, 2014 | Author: | Filed under: Bridgegate, Chris Christie, Department of Community Affairs, Kim Guadagno, Monmouth University Poll, Patrick Murray | Tags: , , , , , , , , , | 2 Comments »

Patrick Murray is emphatic that his next poll will be negative for Christie

By Art Gallagher, artvg@aol.com

UPDATE 4:15PM:  Murray says Magyar/NJSpotlight mischaracterised his analysis.  Read the next chapter here.

Monmouth University pollster Patrick Murray already knows that his next poll about Bridgegate and the Mastro Report, will have an negative outcome for Governor Chris Christie.

Murray is quoted by Mark Magyar in a NJSpotlight piece posted this morning saying emphatically that his next poll will have negative results.

“The Mastro report raised more questions than it answered about what is going on in the Christie administration,” Patrick Murray, director of the Monmouth University Polling Institute, noted. “Now, the release of the memos has raised even more questions, including questions about the credibility of the Mastro report itself.”

Murray said he could not imagine what Christie and his top advisers were thinking when they settled on their current legal and political strategy. “Every time they put something out, they undercut their credibility,” he said. “Everything they do provides fodder that keeps this investigation alive and keeps this story alive. The report was overly protective of the governor, and now everyone is looking through the memos to see what the report left out. Nothing gets settled, everything looks worse.”

A Quinnipiac Poll released last week showed that 56 percent of New Jerseyans regarded the report as a “whitewash” and only 36 percent believed it to be a “legitimate investigation.” Even more ominously, 65 percent of voters knew of the Hoboken case, and 57 percent of that group believe Zimmer’s allegation that the Christie administration improperly withheld Sandy aid from her city because she refused to support the Rockefeller Group development.

Murray said he expected to see similar results in his next Monmouth Poll. “It will be negative. This is not going to be positive,” Murray stated emphatically, asserting that the controversy over the Mastro report clearly resonated with voters. “The question now with Christie is, ‘Have we hit a floor where a certain percentage of people will defend him no matter what, and everyone else will attack him?’”  (emphasis added)

 

IMG_9512Murray enjoys a well-earned reputation for producing polls that most accurately match the results of elections in New Jersey.  However, his declaration of a poll’s results before he’s asked a question raises serious questions about his credibility as a political scientist and the perceived “independence” of his analysis.

In fairness I should point out that it is possible that Murray already conducted his survey and hasn’t reported the results yet.

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Posted: April 16th, 2014 | Author: | Filed under: 2016 Presidential Politics, Bridgegate, Chris Christie, Dawn Zimmer, Hoboken, Monmouth University Poll, NJ Media, Patrick Murray | Tags: , , , , , , , | 1 Comment »

He Said, She Said: Quotable Moments From The Bridgegate Interviews

He Said, She Said: Quotable Moments From The Bridgegate Interviews (via NJSpotlight)

Newly released documents offer additional details about the scandals enveloping the Christie Administration. The documents are summaries of interviews with 70 people that New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie’s lawyers conducted as part of an internal review…

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Posted: April 16th, 2014 | Author: | Filed under: 2016 Presidential Politics, Bridgegate, Chris Christie | Tags: , , , | 1 Comment »

Christie: President is putting off ‘bad’ parts of Obamacare ‘until he’s almost out the door’

Christie: President is putting off ‘bad’ parts of Obamacare ‘until he’s almost out the door’ (via NJ.com)

FRANKLIN — Gov. Chris Christie today said he did not yet know how President Obama’s health care overhaul would ultimately affect New Jersey because the president kept delaying the law’s most detrimental aspects. “What effect it will have is very hard…

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Posted: April 15th, 2014 | Author: | Filed under: 2016 Presidential Politics, Barack Obama, Chris Christie, Obama, Obama Administration, ObamaCare | Tags: , , , | 1 Comment »

Chris Christie calls for unlimited campaign donations with 48-hour reporting period

Chris Christie calls for unlimited campaign donations with 48-hour reporting period (via NJ.com)

FRANKLIN — Gov. Chris Christie today called for the U.S. to allow for unlimited donations to political campaigns, followed by a 48-hour period where the donors must disclose their contributions. “If somebody wants to write me a $100,000 check to my…

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Posted: April 15th, 2014 | Author: | Filed under: Chris Christie | Tags: , , , | No Comments »

Christie calls on Prieto to renew key NJ property tax law

Christie calls on Prieto to renew key NJ property tax law (via NJ.com)

TRENTON — After spending months combating scandal, Gov. Chris Christie today returned to a familiar setting and an old target: standing in front of dozens of supporters to pressure the state Assembly to pass a key bill. Backed by dozens of county…

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Posted: April 14th, 2014 | Author: | Filed under: Chris Christie, Property Tax Tool Kit, Property Taxes | Tags: , , , | No Comments »

Christie to hammer NJ Assembly on expiration of property tax law

Christie to hammer NJ Assembly on expiration of property tax law (via NJ.com)

TRENTON — Gov. Chris Christie plans to go after Assembly Democrats this morning for their refusal to renew a law that reduced compensation for many police and firefighters. Christie has an 11a.m. press conference scheduled at Trenton’s war memorial…

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Posted: April 14th, 2014 | Author: | Filed under: Chris Christie, Property Tax Tool Kit, Property Taxes | Tags: , , | No Comments »

The Politics Of Disaster Relief

By Art Gallagher, artvg@aol.com

When disaster hits, natural or man made, Americans put aside their differences and come together to handle the emergency.

We saw it with 9-11. Most recently in New Jersey we saw it with Superstorm Sandy.

Once the emergency is over and the federal money is flowing, the politics…partisanship and patronage starts.  We saw it with 9-11. We’re living it with Sandy.

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Posted: April 13th, 2014 | Author: | Filed under: 2014 Congressional Races, 2014 Elections, 2014 U.S. Senate race, 2016 Presidential Politics, 2017 NJ Gubernatorial Politics, Bob Menendez, Chris Christie, Chris Smith, Christie Administration, Congress, Cory Booker, Democrats, Department of Community Affairs, Department of Homland Security, Frank Pallone, George W Bush, Housing, Hurricane Sandy, Jennifer Beck, Jersey Shore, NJ Democrats, NJ State Legislature, RREM, Superstorm Sandy | Tags: , , , , , , , , , , | 7 Comments »

Chris Christie says Obama, Democrats should be careful increasing U.S. minimum wage

Chris Christie says Obama, Democrats should be careful increasing U.S. minimum wage (via NJ.com)

FAIRFIELD — A student asked Gov. Chris Christie at a town hall Wednesday what he thought of a push by President Obama and Democrats in Congress to increase the minimum wage across the U.S. to $10.10 an hour. The Republican governor — and possible…

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Posted: April 10th, 2014 | Author: | Filed under: Chris Christie, Uncategorized | Tags: , , , | 1 Comment »

Quinnipiac Poll: New Jersey Voters Approve Of Christie More Than Obama, Menendez or Booker

New Jersey Voters Disapprove of the State Legislature, 36-48%

By Art Gallagher, artvg@aol.com

Governor Chris Christie by Belmar Town Hall. photo by Art Gallagher

Governor Chris Christie at Belmar Town Hall. photo by Art Gallagher

A Quinnipiac Poll released this morning indicates that, despite the beating he has been taking in the local and national media since January, Governor Chris Christie has higher approval ratings than President Barack Obama, Senator Bob Menendez and Senator Cory Booker, among New Jersey voters.

Quinnipiac didn’t spin the poll that way in their narrative, but that is what the numbers indicate.  Most of the media coverage about this poll will be negative for Christie. Too many reporters and editors read the spin and not the numbers.

There is bad news for Christie in this poll.  His approval rating has dropped to 49-44% since January when it was 55-38%.

82% of Republicans and 54% of Independents approve of Christie’s job performance. Only 23% of Democrats give the Guv love.

The Governor’s bully rating is higher than ever before. Voters are now evenly split 48-48 on whether he’s a leader or a bully. In January they said he was more of a leader by 54-40 margin.

56% of voters think the Mastro Report, the internal investigation commissioned by the Governor’s Office that exonerated Christie from any involvement in the Bridgegate scandal was a “whitewash.”  Voters are split 46-46 over whether the legislative investigation into Bridgegate lead by Assemblyman John Wisniewski and Senator Loretta Weinberg is a legitimate investigation or a political witch-hunt.

Voters have a net negative impression of the State Legislature that crosses all party lines. Republicans disapprove of legislature 40-45, Democrats 40-43 and Independents 33-53.  The Legislature’s overall approval numbers are negative 36-48.

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Posted: April 9th, 2014 | Author: | Filed under: 2014 U.S. Senate race, 2016 Presidential Politics, Barack Obama, Bob Menendez, Chris Christie, Cory Booker, NJ State Legislature, Quinnipiac poll | Tags: , , , , , | 2 Comments »